To say that the small Eurasian republic of Georgia and Russia have had a complicated past is putting it mildly.
Georgia was a member of the Soviet Union, but as we’ve seen with Ukraine and the Baltic states, it doesn’t mean that Georgia was a willing member. It was one of the very first republics to declare it’s independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and has been a close US ally ever since a pro-US coalition came to power in 2003.
War finally came in 2008, with a fairly short conflict that lasted only about a week and ended in a peace treaty signed in August 2008. But Russia, never really happy with the terms of that treaty, swiftly moved to occupy territories around Georgia, in direct violation of the agreement.
Like the war (or non-war) in Ukraine, the conflict in Georgia has continued ever since the official conflict ended, always ongoing with no clear beginning or end. And ever since the original ceasefire, the Russians have continued to encroach on Georgian territory in increments.
Which brings us to the present state of affairs. For some time now, Georgia has made indications that it might seek to join NATO, causing Russia to warn of a ‘terrible conflict’ should Georgia attempt to join NATO.
As in fact, as recently as August 2018, Georgia has hosted the ‘Noble Partner’ military exercise, involving Georgian, NATO, American, Ukranian forces, along with participation from a number of other former soviet republics in the area. The exercises are clearly meant to send a message to Putin, and it’s not likely to be one he will receive well.
Russia condemns the exercises as ‘provocative’ and ‘destabylizing’, but the message to Russia is clear – mess with one of us, and there are others waiting to join. Whether Georgia actually joins NATO is still unclear. The original agreement that ended the 2008 conflict actually opened the door officially for Georgia to join NATO, but relatively little progress has been made in the years since.
And should Georgia actually become a full member of NATO, it could very likely be the ‘entangling alliance’ that sparks a larger conflict, should Georgia and Russia later come into conflict. Russia already views NATO as a threat in their own backyard, while Geogia (and Ukraine, and Azerbaijan, and more) view Russia as a threat sitting in their front living room.
Saying that the situation is ripe for eventual confrontation (and potentially, escalation) is an understatement.
