It’s not hard to find a lot of signs of unrest in the US today – from the Black Lives Matter riots on one hand to the January 6th riot on the other, along a whole host of other incidents, there’s a lot on the American political landscape to give cause for deep concern. More now that at almost any point, the divisiveness in the US system threatens to destabilize the way of life that we’ve all come to take for granted.
And this view is shared by a number of historians and researchers who study the origins of civil conflicts. One such academic is Timothy Snyder, a professor of history at Yale University. According to an interview with the historian, Snyder sees a lot of indicators that, if they continue, could likely lead to a much deeper conflict.
Specifically, he calls out factors like very different realities between different groups, very different accounts and understandings of recent events, and the increasing opinion among these groups that force is the only way to solve these differences as key indicators of a growing and deepening conflict to come.
Will the future conflict be just like the last civil war, with defined sides and states choosing one side vs another? That’s not terribly likely, especially in this nuclear age. But an asymmetrical conflict, something like the troubles in Ireland throughout the 20th century or much of the American Revolutionary War, where a much larger force faces a smaller group of insurrectionists who avoid fixed direct action, is much more possible.
In any event, any internal conflict will likely only weaken the country in the face of renewed threats from any number of external nations and groups, who will in turn take advantage of our troubles to do God knows what.
